Escape from model land

define the purpose

• adequacy-for-purpose
• what kinds of questions can this model answer?
• what kinds of questions can it not answer?

we know nothing for certain but we do not know nothing

• if it can’t predict, what else can it show us about the situation?
• do these qualitative insights agree or disagree with other models and observations?
• can we make decisions that are less sensitive to the different outcomes?
• what alternative stories can it tell about the future?

make value judgements

• why are they made in this way?
• what are alternative values?
• what is a good outcome for the model?

write about the real world

• in what way is this model inadequate or misinfomative?
• what does it fail to capture?
• do you have high/low confidence in the numbers you are reporting?

use many models

• what other models of this situation exists?

summary

• human and subjective nature of models as metaphors and narratives
• quantitative exit
• qualitative exit via expert judgement